Covid-19. Dropping print sales. A flat trade market. Do all signs point to “yes,” that this is the year to switch to self-publishing?

They just might, though I think it’s important to keep your own goals in mind when you answer this question. Here are some handy-dandy stats on the trade and self-publishing markets for you to take into consideration. 

Self-Published ISBNs: On Their Way Up.

According to Bowker, the official ISBN agency of the US and Australia, 2018 saw a 40% increase in self-published titles, from 1.2 million ISBNs registered in 2017 to 1.6 million in 2018. 

An ISBN is the identifying numerical code given to each format of a book (e.g., ebook, paperback). One title might have multiple formats and therefore multiple ISBNs. With that said, Amazon and some other distributors don’t require self-published authors to have ISBNs to publish, instead supplying a proprietary identifying code (Amazon’s is ASIN), so it may well be that tons more self-published books are on the market than Bowker accounts for.

Either way, this is huge news, especially when you consider the following point.

Thanks, Covid-19: Paperback Sales Down, Ebooks On Their Way Up.

Despite The Strand’s pleas in March that bookstores are essential, quarantine is causing the physical book market to take a downward turn, especially when it comes to paperback copies.

Typically, a trade-published book comes out in hardcover as a debut and then about a year later comes out as a paperback re-release. Consumers aren’t purchasing those paperback re-releases like they were before lockdowns, but ebook sales, which only months ago industry experts feared would be overtaken by audiobooks, are on their way up (sources here and here).

This might be bad news for the trade industry, which especially on the level of the Big Five (Simon & Schuster, HarperCollins, Hachette, Penguin Random House, and Macmillan) is like a steamer ship that takes a while to pivot. For the legions of little speedboats that comprise the self-publishing vertical, though, a shift to marketing ebook formats over their print books was a no-brainer, something some of my indie clients were doing on instinct right when shelter-at-home went into place.

Is Self-Publishing Right for You? Let the Genres Decide.

One way to decide whether self-publishing or trade publishing is right for you is to think about what genres are doing well in each industry vertical. Please note: I don’t condone writing to trend, but if you have an existing manuscript in one of the following genres that was ready to send to the masses yesterday, then this information might influence your decision.

In 2019, romance, fantasy, thrillers, sci-fi, and literary fiction were the top five most popular self-published genres.

In 2019, psychological suspense novels and nonfiction titles that could make a splash in the media were big in trade publishing; dystopian YA was making a comeback, along with middle-grade horror. For a thorough look at genres popular in trade publishing for the last six months, check out Jane Friedman’s article from last October.

Ultimately, the Answer Depends on Your Goals.

Despite the flatness of the market and the hurdles trade publishing has to face this year, there’s still a prestige that comes from having the name of a big imprint on the spine of your book. Heck, I still dream about being published by one of the Big Five someday. There’s certainly no shame in it!

If you’re eager to get published by a New York house, don’t be discouraged. Book publishing has faced and survived economic downturns like the 1980s recession before, though it may have emerged changed in some way. If you want to query agents, I say go for it—but with a hybrid approach in mind. That is, if you spend a dedicated amount of time querying a set number of agents and you get no bites, then perhaps you should explore your self-publishing options.

Self-publishing guarantees you’ll get published, but it’s not a lightning bolt of instant success. You are in essence a business, a publisher, when you put a book out under your own auspices. You have to wade into the particulars of marketing, promotion, etc. There are rarely national headlines for self-published authors, and the long tail is a very real thing for niche markets and cottage industries like self-publishing. That said, with the right amount of promotional work and well-polished content, these drilled-down niches can lead to fans and readers who, like Hufflepuff House, are loyal to the end.